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In today’s volatile global trade environment, industrial real estate investors and occupiers are navigating one of the most unpredictable supply chain landscapes in decades. Since the pandemic, questions around reshoring, nearshoring, and onshoring have dominated boardroom discussions, particularly as tariff policies shift rapidly and geopolitical pressure reshapes global logistics strategies.

In a recent episode of The Real Finds Podcast, I sat down with Richard Barnett, Chief Marketing Officer at Supplyframe and a renowned authority on supply chain strategy, to ask a timely question: when will industrial stakeholders have more certainty when it comes to onshoring decisions?

The answer is complicated, but there are clues.

From Globalization to Regionalization: A Shift in Strategy

Barnett began his career during the first wave of globalization in the late ’90s, when companies chased cost advantages and supplier flexibility across borders. Over time, however, the calculus has changed. “It’s no longer just about lowest cost,” Barnett explains. “It’s about proximity to innovation, speed to scale, and access to specialized capabilities.”

As industries like automotive, semiconductors, and electronics matured, the value of regional clusters became clearer. High-quality suppliers, robust logistics infrastructure, and skilled labor began to outweigh pure cost savings. “You see ecosystems form around capital-intensive production,” Barnett notes, “because automation and know-how are just as important as cheap labor.”

This transition from global to regional supply chain networks has major implications for industrial real estate. Demand is rising for localized, specialized space—from advanced manufacturing facilities to strategic inventory warehouses.

Tariffs: A New Form of Shock Therapy

If COVID-19 exposed the fragility of global supply chains, the current tariff environment is accelerating a realignment.

“The pandemic was a wake-up call,” Barnett says, “but tariffs are a deliberate, policy-led disruption. They have the same whipsaw effect, but with more ambiguity.”

Companies that once embraced just-in-time logistics are now forward-buying to get ahead of tariff hikes—often flooding ports and overwhelming storage networks in the process. For industrial real estate occupiers, this means more demand for temporary warehousing, industrial outdoor storage (IOS), and flexible fulfillment space. For landlords, it’s a chance to capitalize on leasing activity—if they can match speed with certainty.

Yet that’s the rub. Certainty remains elusive.

The 3 to 9 Month Visibility Window

According to Barnett, most sectors now face a 3 to 9-month “visibility window” where they can begin to rebalance operations, if tariff policies stabilize. Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), logistics, and e-commerce are adjusting most quickly, using inventory management to react in real time.

In contrast, capital-intensive industries, such as semiconductors, defense, and automotive, face longer decision-making cycles. “Final assembly sites can take two to three years to realign,” Barnett warns, “and the full supply chain might require five or more.” In those cases, even small delays or policy shifts can ripple into billion-dollar project slowdowns.

That’s why so many investors are hitting pause. They’re watching the tariff landscape as closely as they once watched the Fed.

CHIPS Act: Certainty Anchored in Policy?

Despite the turmoil, some government actions are providing a roadmap. The CHIPS Act, for example, offers incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and co-located supply ecosystems.

“The CHIPS Act was well-designed,” says Barnett. “It considers not just fab investments but also talent pipelines, logistics, and supplier networks. Still, if tariffs spike or funding slows, even these billion-dollar projects can get reevaluated.”

The takeaway? Even government-backed initiatives are vulnerable to broader uncertainty. That’s why due diligence now goes beyond site selection and zoning—it includes understanding supply chain depth, geopolitical exposure, and downstream logistics readiness.

Where the Real Estate Opportunities Are Emerging

So what does this all mean for industrial real estate investors and occupiers?

1. Short-Term: Flexibility Wins

• Leasing spikes in outdoor storage and short-term warehousing are creating opportunities in fragmented markets.

• Manufacturers and suppliers are forward-buying inventory, pushing demand into secondary logistics hubs.

2. Mid-Term: Watch the 3–9 Month Risk Window

• As the tariff regime evolves, companies will start rebalancing where they place product lines, shift suppliers, or build backup facilities.

• Real estate investors who position assets near critical logistics corridors (Southern California ports, Ontario-Michigan gateway, Monterrey-Nuevo León corridor) stand to benefit.

3. Long-Term: Follow the Ecosystems

• The biggest winners will be industrial parks and development zones that attract supplier clustering around anchor tenants.

• CHIPS Act beneficiaries in Texas, Arizona, and Utah are good case studies. But expect lag if supporting infrastructure or policy clarity is slow.

Can You Time Reshoring?

Not perfectly, but Barnett believes we’ll have more clarity in the next 6–12 months. “We’re in a reset period,” he says. “By the end of this year, we’ll have a clearer read on tariff trajectories and investment commitment durability.”

Until then, industrial occupiers and investors alike must prepare for layered, non-linear recovery paths. Onshoring and nearshoring are here to stay—but not in the simplistic, full-deglobalization way some have forecasted. The real world is messier. Global supply chains remain tightly interwoven, even as regional resilience becomes the new goal.

Final Thought: Resilience Is a Real Estate Strategy

As Barnett notes, every new product is a new supply chain. And every new supply chain requires real estate, strategically located, logistically enabled, and economically justifiable.

Industrial investors and occupiers may not have perfect foresight, but they don’t need to. The next generation of growth will favor those who understand supply chain signals, policy catalysts, and how to underwrite for optionality.

Because in this market, resilience isn’t just a supply chain goal, it’s a real estate strategy.

 Want More?
Listen to the full conversation with Richard Barnett on The Real Finds Podcast. Available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube.