Real Estate

The Data Center Dilemma: REITs Vs Moore’s Law

Small investors looking to capitalize on the data center boom might feel locked out as sovereign wealth funds and private equity giants tighten their grip on the industry. However, there are still lucrative opportunities beyond direct ownership of hyperscale data centers. Investing in the surrounding ecosystem, including data center adjacent power, connectivity, and real estate infrastructure, could offer substantial returns without requiring billion-dollar capital reserves.

Credit Wired

The Structural Issue with Data Center REITs

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) have long been favored for investors seeking commercial real estate exposure. They offer steady cash flows and required dividend payouts, making them an attractive option for income-seeking investors. However, data center REITs face significant structural challenges threatening their viability in an era of rapid technological advancement.

Data centers require constant reinvestment to keep up with accelerating computing demands. Unlike traditional real estate assets that appreciate over time with modest maintenance, data centers quickly become obsolete without frequent upgrades. The need for continual reinvestment is where data center REITs struggle the most, as their structure mandates that they distribute 90% of taxable income to shareholders, leaving little retained capital for reinvestment. As a result, REITs must rely on capital markets to raise funds for necessary upgrades, placing them at a disadvantage compared to private operators.

Moore’s Law and the Growing Capital Intensity of Data Centers

Moore’s Law predicts that computing power doubles roughly every two years, and this has profound implications for data center infrastructure. Each technological leap demands greater processing power, more efficient cooling systems, and faster networking infrastructure. The rise of artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and cloud computing is driving an explosion in data processing needs, requiring data centers to upgrade at an accelerating pace.

This reality presents a fundamental challenge to data center REITs. Their business model relies on long-term leasing agreements with tenants, yet the rapid advancement of technology often outpaces lease cycles. As tenants demand more computing power and higher efficiency, existing facilities require constant modifications, further straining capital resources. The mismatch between capital-intensive reinvestments and the dividend payout structure of REITs creates an unsustainable model for long-term competitiveness.

The Pro-Cyclicality Problem

A significant issue facing data center REITs is their pro-cyclical cash distribution model. When data centers are highly profitable, REITs must return considerable portions of their cash flow to shareholders rather than reinvesting it. Ironically, this is when reinvestment is most crucial. Without the ability to retain earnings, data center REITs must issue new debt or equity to fund expansion and upgrades, increasing leverage and diluting shareholder value.

Private investors, on the other hand, have more flexibility. Mandatory distributions do not constrain sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms and can strategically allocate capital to reinvest in infrastructure. This gives them a significant competitive advantage over REITs, as they can deploy funds more efficiently and respond to market needs without the constraints of public shareholder expectations.

The Debt Disadvantage

Financing data centers is another area where REITs struggle compared to private investors. Unlike traditional real estate assets that generate predictable rental income with modest capital expenditures, data centers require constant technological upgrades and energy-efficient modifications, making traditional debt financing more challenging.

While publicly traded REITs like Equinix and Digital Realty can access corporate-level unsecured debt, their capital costs are often higher than those of well-capitalized private firms. Moreover, issuing new shares to raise capital dilutes existing shareholders, creating additional barriers to sustained growth. Private firms, such as Blackstone, have billions in deployable capital without the constraints of public market fluctuations. Their ability to fund acquisitions and infrastructure improvements without issuing public equity gives them an edge in a sector that demands continuous investment.

The Nuclear Option: Power Constraints and the Future of Data Centers

One of the most overlooked challenges facing data centers is energy availability. The surge in AI-driven workloads and high-performance computing has created unprecedented power demands. The global power grid is struggling to keep up with the needs of massive data centers, and some forward-thinking investors are exploring new energy solutions to ensure reliability.

Some operators are considering integrating data centers with nuclear power plants, including operational and decommissioned reactors. These reactors provide a stable and cost-effective energy supply on a massive scale that nonnuclear power sources struggle to provide. This approach, however, requires extensive capital investments and long-term planning, making it impractical for REITs constrained by short-term market pressures. Sovereign wealth funds and private equity firms with long investment horizons are better positioned to explore these large-scale energy infrastructure partnerships.

 

Where Small Investors Can Win

Despite the dominance of large institutional investors in direct data center ownership, small investors can still find opportunities in the surrounding ecosystem. Rather than competing in an increasingly capital-intensive market, they can invest in supporting infrastructure that enables data centers to operate efficiently.

  1. Investing in Supporting Infrastructure – Data centers rely on extensive fiber optic networks, energy-efficient cooling systems, and backup power solutions. Companies that supply these critical components are positioned for significant growth as demand for data processing increases.
  2. Real Estate Adjacent to Data Centers – The land surrounding major data center hubs is becoming increasingly valuable. Industrial properties near data centers can serve as edge computing hubs, storage facilities, or logistics centers for the expanding tech ecosystem.
  3. Renewable Energy and Microgrids – As energy availability becomes a major constraint, investments in renewable energy sources, battery storage, and microgrid technology could provide high returns. Data centers are under pressure to reduce their carbon footprints, making sustainability-focused infrastructure an attractive investment.
  4. Edge Computing and Smaller Data Centers – While hyper-scale facilities are dominated by large institutional players, smaller data centers focus on edge computing, which brings processing power closer to end-users and offers investment opportunities with lower capital requirements.
Credit Intersect Illinois

The Future of Data Center Investment

The next decade will likely see a widening gap between hyperscale data centers controlled by sovereign wealth funds and private equity and the emerging ecosystem of secondary investment opportunities. While REITs struggle to meet technological demands and capital constraints, infrastructure, energy, and connectivity investments will offer alternative paths to profitability.

The outlook for data center REITs remains challenging. Their inability to retain earnings, coupled with increasing capital intensity and energy constraints, puts them at a competitive disadvantage. The most successful entities in the space will be those with access to deep capital reserves and long investment horizons—qualities that overwhelmingly favor private investors over public REITs.

Conclusion: Adapt or Be Left Behind

The data center industry is transforming significantly, driven by Moore’s Law and the rising demands of AI and cloud computing. While data center REITs struggle with structural limitations, private investors with more flexible capital allocation strategies are poised to dominate the market.

However, this shift does not mean small investors are out of options. By focusing on the broader data center ecosystem that includes fiber networks, power infrastructure, and real estate adjacent to major hubs, profitable opportunities remain. The key is to recognize where value is shifting and position investments accordingly. The future of data center investment belongs to those who understand these dynamics and act decisively to capitalize on them.

For more on the data center real estate market, please speak to one of our commercial real estate agents here.

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Gordon Lamphere J.D.

Gordon is a licensed Illinois & Wisconsin Real Estate Broker, who manages the commercial sales and leasing team. Gordon also leads Van Vlissingen and Co’s media marketing team. He is an honors graduate of St. Mary’s College of Maryland and holds a Juris Doctorate from Tulane University Law School.

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